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Textbook quartiles equal Excel's QUARTILE.EXC, but only when n is odd

Textbook quartiles equal Excel's QUARTILE.EXC, but only when n is odd

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10 min read
Split the Score Change, Then Credit the System

Split the Score Change, Then Credit the System

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12 min read
Survivorship bias: testing on today's winners flatters every strategy

Survivorship bias: testing on today's winners flatters every strategy

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2 min read
When a lottery ticket is worth more than it costs: pricing a roll-down in 20 lines of Python

When a lottery ticket is worth more than it costs: pricing a roll-down in 20 lines of Python

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3 min read
Prediction markets priced 10 midterm questions the night before. All 10 favourites won. That proves less than you think.

Prediction markets priced 10 midterm questions the night before. All 10 favourites won. That proves less than you think.

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3 min read
E-commerce Statistics 2026: $340B in a Quarter, and 17.1% of All U.S. Retail

E-commerce Statistics 2026: $340B in a Quarter, and 17.1% of All U.S. Retail

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2 min read
AI SaaS Statistics 2026: $2.6T in AI Spending Is Not $2.6T in AI SaaS

AI SaaS Statistics 2026: $2.6T in AI Spending Is Not $2.6T in AI SaaS

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2 min read
Catching Input Drift Before Accuracy Falls: A PSI Walkthrough

Catching Input Drift Before Accuracy Falls: A PSI Walkthrough

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5 min read
Your Team Has Started Running A/B Tests and You Cannot Tell If the Results Mean Anything

Your Team Has Started Running A/B Tests and You Cannot Tell If the Results Mean Anything

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2 min read
Cybersecurity Statistics 2026: $20.9B in Reported Losses, and Vulnerabilities Now Beat Passwords

Cybersecurity Statistics 2026: $20.9B in Reported Losses, and Vulnerabilities Now Beat Passwords

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2 min read
7 B2B SaaS Market Trends for 2026: What Buyers Are Actually Doing

7 B2B SaaS Market Trends for 2026: What Buyers Are Actually Doing

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2 min read
Hyperliquid Trading Bot: What to Backtest First

Hyperliquid Trading Bot: What to Backtest First

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7 min read
Overfitting in practice: our rule that simple wins ties

Overfitting in practice: our rule that simple wins ties

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2 min read
Is a live goal probability honest? Checking 341,846 readings

Is a live goal probability honest? Checking 341,846 readings

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2 min read
How we score an election forecast (and what the score does not measure)

How we score an election forecast (and what the score does not measure)

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4 min read
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